It’s not your imagination: Meteors & fireballs are bigger this year

Posted on by farlane
Meteor Strike? by Matt Kazmierski

Meteor Strike? by Matt Kazmierski

The first quarter of 2026 has produced a significant surge in large fireball events, and the American Meteor Society says that the data shows a pattern that warrants serious investigation. This article is for sure wonky but the topline takeaway is that more sightings seen by more people, especially those accompanied by sonic booms mean bigger objects:

The AMS fireball reporting system has been in continuous operation since 2005 and reached maturity around 2016–2018, with annual Q1 event totals stabilizing in the range of 1,100–1,400 events. What follows is an analysis of Q1 data from 2011–2026, with particular attention to the 2021–2026 window where the reporting platform has been fully stable.

The most important finding from our analysis is that the total number of fireball events is not dramatically unusual. Q1 2026’s 2,046 total events is the highest on record but only marginally above 2022 (2,037) and 2021 (1,947). If this were simply a matter of more people filing reports, we would expect a proportional increase across all witness-count thresholds. That is not what we see.

…At the 25+ report threshold, 2026 has produced 61 events versus a 2021–2025 average of roughly 43—up about 42%. At 50+ reports, 2026 has 38 events versus an average of 18—more than double. And at 100+, the count of 14 is twice the average of 7. The signal gets stronger as the threshold rises, which is the hallmark of a genuine physical change in the incoming material, not a reporting artifact.

…If the fireballs were simply being seen by more people due to favorable conditions, we would not expect changes in the physical characteristics reported by witnesses. But the data shows an elevated rate of delayed sound reports—sonic booms reaching the ground—which requires objects that penetrate deep enough into the atmosphere to produce pressure waves.

You can (and should) read on for lots more if you are interested!

Matt shared this photo back in 2018 & says he was just kidding about the “meteor strike” part 😉 Check out his showcase on Flickr for more.

Here’s a video of a November 4, 2026 fireball captured from multiple weather cams on the Michigan Storm Chasers network.

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South Taurid Meteor Shower and Northern Lights!

Posted on by farlane

photo date/id: view larger here: and yes, feel free to share!

FIREBALL!, photo by Ken Scott

Well, my farewell tour to Autumn lasted a whole day. What can you do with things to share like this though?

Yesterday NOAA’s Space Weather tipped us off that there was a chance of strong geomagnetic storms producing northern lights. Now NOAA forecasters are saying there’s a good chance of a strong, G3-class geomagnetic storm during the next 24 hours that could bring auroras as far south as southern Michigan and even into Illinois & Ohio! Top that off with clear skies in the forecast and that means EVERYONE in Michigan should make a point to get out to someplace dark tonight for better than average chance of seeing some killer aurora action!

It gets better though! EarthSky shares information about the South Taurid meteor shower that peaks on November 4th & 5th and is underway right now.

The meteoroid streams that feed the South (and North) Taurids are very spread out and diffuse. That means the Taurids are extremely long-lasting (September 25 to November 25) but usually don’t offer more than about 7 meteors per hour. That is true even on the South Taurids’ expected peak night. The Taurids are, however, well known for having a high percentage of fireballs, or exceptionally bright meteors. Plus, the other Taurid shower – the North Taurids – always adds a few more meteors to the mix during the South Taurids’ peak night. In 2015, the slim waning crescent moon coming up before dawn will not seriously obtrude on this year’s South Taurid meteor shower. The South Taurids should produce their greatest number of meteors in the wee hours – between midnight and dawn – on November 5. Remember, it’ll be possible to catch a fireball or two!

Late night November 12 until dawn November 13, 2015, the North Taurids

Like the South Taurids, the North Taurids meteor shower is long-lasting (October 12 – December 2) but modest, and the peak number is forecast at about 7 meteors per hour. The North and South Taurids combine, however, to provide a nice sprinkling of meteors throughout October and November. Typically, you see the maximum numbers at around midnight, when Taurus the Bull is highest in the sky.

Read on for info about where to look for the best chance – short answer is to the east between midnight and dawn!

Ken writes:

My friend Annette came up for a visit from Detroit and I wanted to show her some Perseid Meteors, so I got permission to work in the Grand Traverse Lighthouse Park after dark (thank you folks!) and well, we got more than we bargained for … a 4+ second fireball and unknown to us because they were hid by the trees and very dim … Aurora Borealis!!
and did I mention 2 ISS flybys!!
She paraphrased ‘we don’t see this in Detroit’ . . .
It was a good eve

View his photo bigger, see more in his massive Skies Above slideshow and enjoy this timelapse!

More northern lights and more meteors & meteor showers on Michigan in Pictures!