providence road, photo by heinrick05.

Much of the Mitten is bracing for a major winter storm that is predicted to drop well over a foot of snow from Grand Rapids to Detroit tonight and tomorrow. Meteorologist Bill Steffen has some great stuff on the storm and on Michigan weather in general. He’s named the storm the Groundhog Day Dump and writes that Punxsutawney Phil:

…has looked at the models and he’s definitely forecasting six more weeks of winter, maybe seven…and that this coming summer will be a couple degrees cooler than last summer.

The heaviest snow Tuesday night into early Weds. with snowfall rates of over an inch an hour. The heaviest snow looks to be across the southern half of Lower Michigan, with lighter amount as you go north toward Traverse City. The model data is in pretty good agreement. The models are in the 10-16″ range, a couple up to 18″, but I didn’t go quite that high. Winds will blow he snow into 3-4 foot drifts. All the models think this is going to be a very significant snowstorm and if they are right, some places will be approaching or exceeding all-time February record 12 or 24-hour snowfalls. And…if the models are right, there won’t be many schools open Weds. from Kent Co. to the south at least and maybe all the way to Cadillac. The GFS gives us a steady 25 mph wind with gusts to 35 (850 mb wind to 78 mph!). That’s at least “near blizzard” conditions for Tuesday night and Weds. AM.

Keep in mind that’s snowFALL not snow cover. The numbers have been pretty consistent. CAUTION: Numbers from these models are often too high and sometimes WAY too high. The heaviest snow ever in G.R. in a single day was 16.1″ during the blizzard of ’78. The 24-hour snowfall record for G.R. in any February is 11.4″ ON 2/3/2007. With records going back to the late 1800s, Grand Rapids has NEVER had a foot of snow in 24-hours during the month of February. This storm will be moving, not backing up and stopping like the blizzard of ’78. So, feel free to get excited, but don’t go overboard.

So panic … but keep it in perspective. More blizzards on Michigan in Pictures and also see Great Blizzard of 1978 on Absolute Michigan.

Check this photo out bigger and in Heinrick’s Michigan slideshow.