A Pair of Predictions for Winter 2016

Posted on by farlane

The ice, with some people thrown in for scale

The ice, with some people thrown in for scale., photo by Bill Dolak

It was nice to read NOAA’s forecast for Winter 2016 predicting that El Niño will give us a warmer than normal winter in Michigan:

One of the stronger effects of El Niño is warmer than normal winter temperatures from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. NOAA places most of Lower Michigan in an area with a greater than 50 percent chance of warmer than normal temperatures. That also means there is a 33 percent chance of normal temperatures and a 17 percent chance of below normal temperatures.

So, it’s not a sure bet that it will be a warmer-than-normal winter, but indications are strongly leaning in the warmer direction.

The farther north you are in Michigan, the higher the chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures. The Upper Peninsula has at least a 60 percent chance of warmer-than-normal winter temperatures.

If you read on at mLive, meteorologist Mark Torregrossa has some caveats that temper this a bit. You can also just throw big buckets of frozen water on the whole idea of a warmer winter if you believe in the Farmers’ Almanac 2016 Winter Forecast where they predict that:

…the winter of 2015–2016 is looking like a repeat of last winter, at least in terms of temperatures with unseasonably cold conditions over the Atlantic Seaboard, eastern portions of the Great Lakes, and the lower peninsula of Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, most of the Tennessee and Mississippi Valley, as well as much of the Gulf Coast.

Gack. For the record, the Almanac has nailed the last two winters for Michigan…

Bill took this shot in March of 2015 on the heels of the most brutal winter that Michigan had seen since … well … 2014. View it background bigtacular and see more in his South Haven slideshow.

More winter and more weather on Michigan in Pictures.

Farmers’ Almanac calls for cold & snowy winter 2013-2014

Posted on by farlane

Snowfall: Scenic Drive

Snowfall: Scenic Drive, photo by marylea

In Farmers’ Almanac prediction: valid winter forecast or ‘darts at a dartboard’?, the Great Lakes Echo explores the accuracy of the venerable Farmers’ Almanac, writing:

…this year, like many before, bloggers, newspapers and local TV stations alike are abuzz with the Almanac’s prediction for winter 2014 – particularly a notably bitter, cold, precipitous winter for the Midwest and most of the Great Lakes region.

“This winter is shaping up to be a rough one,” the almanac reports.

So how much weight does this prediction hold?

“The value of the Farmers’ Almanac in terms of weather forecasting is no better than a comic book,” says Detroit-based meteorologist Paul Gross. “If we knew the forecast a year in advance, we’d be utilizing that knowledge by now.”

The Almanac, which famously keeps its weather predicting methods rather hush-hush, claims to be 80 percent accurate – although the lack of concrete evidence proving that claim draws some skepticism.

…

The Almanac also makes a questionable remark about the relationship between global warming and a winter with heavy snow.

“Brrrrr!” says the excerpt. “It looks like global warming will soon be taking a vacation to make room for Old Man Winter.”

Heavy snow in winter means quite the opposite in regards to global warming, says Gross. “What people don’t understand is that global warming means that more ocean water is evaporated into the atmosphere,” he said. “And that water vapor in the atmosphere is what becomes available to storms to create precipitation.”

Global warming isn’t “taking a vacation” to make way for the heavy precipitation, Gross said. Rather, a warming climate cause increased precipitation. “It’s shocking, but four of Detroit’s top 10 snowiest winters in history have occurred since 2002,” he said.

They add that the Almanac’s prediction does appear to be somewhat in line with predictions like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration’s. Read on for more at the Echo.

Check Marylea’s photo out bigger and see more in her Winter 2011-2012 slideshow.

More weather on Michigan in Pictures.